State and prognosis of the urogenital diseases morbidity in the adults of Nizhegorodsky region

Apolihin O.I., Sevryukov F.A., Sorokin D.A., Karpuhin I.V., Puchkin A.B., Semenychev D.V., Kochkin A.D.

In this article we outline the kinetics of the overall, primary and admittance morbidity with urogenital diseases in adult patients in 2005-2010 years in 3 administrative regions – Nizhegorodsky region (NR), Privolzhsky federal region (PFO) and Russian Federation (RF) overall.

We have worked out the morbidity prognosis up to year 2015 using mathematical prognostic model. Morbidity kinetics for all 3 regions shows the growth of overall, primary and admittance morbidity. The levels of primary morbidity are lower for NR than in RF and PFO correspondingly 1.4 and 1.6 times. Nevertheless, overall morbidity increment by year 2010 was 2 times more for NR compared to RF. Linear approximation of the urogenital morbidity indexes for 6 years predicts the growth of primary morbidity at 3.2% when compared to year 2010. This index could be as high as 4860 at 100 000 persons in 2015. Linear trend of admittance morbidity shows that this index will continue to growth and will be at the level of 928 cases at 100 000 adult persons in 2015. The increment rate of admittances due to diseases when compared to year 2010 will be 36.3%.

The results obtained define the necessity of the urological services reorganization aimed to increase the quality of medical help and to improve it’s territorial and economical accessibility.

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